So we are without a leader, rudderless, do we notice, not really, the herd trundles on, but as issues come up and decisions need to be made we look to our Elders/Representatives for reassurance and comfort, and we need somebody to be there telling us its going to be alright and we are doing the right thing.
Fine Gael is looking at the leadership battle, its new electoral college system ensures the party elected have the majority of the say helping the front row of the FG herd to stay put and consolidate their positions.
So who will win, and why, well as with all human pursuits the majority will be led by the majority, as in, what is sold to them as the majority position.
Nobody wants to be out on their own and many will wait until its clear who is going to win and will only declare then.
So looking at the two contenders at the moment for the leadership:
Leo: He is perceived as Young, Gay, Dublin, popular with the media and the Dublin population.
Not particularly capable as a minister, no real legacy of achieving much in his tenure as a minister, at this point would leave no footprint if gone.
Main weakness: no track record of achieving in cabinet.
Simon: He is perceived as Dull, Conscientious, Serious, Capable.
He is very well briefed, has handled many crisis very effectively, safe pair of hands, not as popular with electorate, does not have the common touch, good family man. Strong history of successful management of various crisis
Main weakness: not sticking knife in and taking power when it was possible.
As I sit here entering day three Leo has opened up a substantial lead, however a week is a long time in politics and it is still anyones to win.
Where we are today:
Declared for Leo 37
Declared for Simon 20
These numbers are just the beginning and it will change as the councillors and the party members vote. The question is which way?
This has started Leo off with the much lauded in political terms of momentum, and for the herd, this is what the weaker always look to, who else is voting for him?
The stronger ones are cutting a deal, right now it looks like many of the heavyweights have cut deals, and have cabinet positions either secured or promised.
With the Dublin based media already big fans this lead has put Leo out as a clear front runner in the race.
Why the big difference? Well Simon is one that has always been slow to indulge in the usual chicanery of compromise politics and sticks to his principles.
It has been the hallmark of his career and has cost him much, it is a rare thing in politics these days and possibly the thing that makes him one of the fittest in our public leaders to represent us.
He has not been the fastest to think on his feet in debates and has learned to understand his brief and decide on his position , and this is why he has handled the various crisis’s well. He takes the time to analyse the problem, takes his briefs, works out a position and sticks to it.
Of the two, Leo offers a more right wing and PD style Fine Gael, and in the longer term may end up costing the party heavily regionally. Simon would be more solid and safe and give Fine Gael a chance of holding the centre.
Fianna Fail have, since the founding of the state been at the core and heart of the Irish People and politics while Fine Gael have swung between the centre and the right.
At the moment everybody is looking at the two personalities like TV celebrities the choice will be much longer reaching then they realize.
A future government between FF and Sinn Fein is a real possibility and within a year, but SF will have many problems changing from a well organized and tightly controlled military style organization to become a modern socialist party.
FF are likely to consolidate the centre ground again. SF are likely to split.
So the FG herd has to choose, a move to the right with a more popular and un proven leader, or Safety and stability in the centre with a less charismatic but proven and solid option.
Is it FG’s fate to again concede the centre and let FF back into power?
Are they destined to wait in the wings again until the next major Financial crisis, to be called back to fix things again?
As usual in politics an interesting 3 weeks ahead.